Central Bank Monetary Policy Pre-Decision

Detects draft monetary policy decisions and pre-announcement rate recommendations: a rate value (percentage, basis points or per cent) near a central bank / Reserve Bank reference and a recommendation line proposing a rate action. Published RBA statements, media commentary and forecasts are excluded.

Type: keyword_proximity
Engine: universal
Confidence: medium
Confidence justification: A labelled recommendation proposing a rate action beside an RBA reference and a rate value is characteristic of pre-decision papers; the previous 75 tier could fire on 'board paper' alone because a decision keyword group was also a primary. Published statements and economist forecasts are excluded by the filter group. Medium because internal economic commentary written as a recommendation can still match.
Jurisdictions: global
Regulations: Reserve Bank Act 1959 (Cth), Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)
Frameworks: QGISCF, PSPF
Data categories: financial
Scope: wide
Risk rating: 9

Pattern

\b\d{1,2}\.\d{1,2}\s*%|\b\d{1,3}\s*(?:basis\s*points|bps)\b

Corroborative evidence keywords

cash rate target, cash rate decision, deliberation, policy options, inflation, CPI, trimmed mean, unemployment, forward guidance, tightening, financial, fiscal, monetary, accounting, treasury, audit, revenue, expenditure, budget, ledger (+5 more)

Proximity: 300 characters

Should match

PROTECTED — EMBARGOED. Treasury Analysis: Expected RBA Cash Rate Decision — March 2026 Board Meeting. Assessment: RBA board likely to ease by 25 basis points to 3.85%. Supporting factors: CPI at 2.4%, below target band midpoint. Employment softening. Pre-decision analysis — not for distribution. — Treasury pre-decision analysis with assessment line and embargo marker (85)
CONFIDENTIAL — PRE-DECISION. Reserve Bank Board Paper. Recommendation: Reduce the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%. Deliberation: The Board notes that inflation has returned to the target band. Economic growth remains below trend. Hold option considered but rejected. — Central bank board paper with recommendation, marker and deliberation (85)
PROTECTED — EMBARGOED. Monetary policy pre-decision briefing for the Reserve Bank board. Staff recommendation: tighten by 50 bps, moving the official cash rate target to 4.35 per cent. Deliberation notes restricted pending the board decision. Not for distribution. — Pre-decision briefing with bps and per-cent formats (85)
Reserve Bank Board recommendation: ease 25 basis points to 3.60 per cent. — Recommendation line with institution and rate but no marker or policy content (75)

Should not match

RBA Media Release: At its meeting today, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged. The decision was published immediately after the meeting. — Published RBA decision - public announcement
Market economists expect the RBA to cut rates at its next meeting. CBA, Westpac, and NAB have all forecast a rate reduction in their public research notes, with market pricing implying a 25 basis point cut to 3.60%. — Public market commentary
The RBA cash rate is 3.85%. — Public fact - rate and institution only
Economics exercise: RBA cuts 25 bps to 3.60%. — Training exercise without a recommendation line
RESERVE BANK BOARD PAPER - PRE-DECISION Recommendation: __________ Options: hold at 3.85% or ease 25 basis points Meeting date: __________ — Blank board paper - recommendation not populated
Fact sheet: the Reserve Bank Board sets the cash rate target, currently 3.85%. Decisions are published at 2.30 pm on the day of each meeting. — Public fact sheet
A museum exhibit described the history of Australian currency. — Unrelated

Known false positives

Economist research notes and market commentary predicting RBA moves. Mitigation: Forecast/market-pricing framing is excluded and commentary rarely carries a labelled recommendation line.
Internal economic research written as a staff recommendation about another central bank. Mitigation: Still requires an RBA/Reserve Bank/central bank reference; reviewers should confirm the document is a pre-decision paper.