Central Bank Monetary Policy Pre-Decision

Detects draft monetary policy decisions, interest rate recommendations, or central bank board deliberation papers before public announcement. Covers RBA board papers and Treasury analysis of expected RBA decisions.

Type

keyword_proximity

Engine

universal

Confidence

medium

Confidence justification

Medium confidence: the co-occurrence of central bank/monetary policy terms with pre-decision markers and specific rate change indicators is uniquely identifiable. Published RBA statements and media commentary are excluded.

Jurisdictions

global

Regulations

Reserve Bank Act 1959 (Cth)

Frameworks

QGISCF

Data categories

financial

Scope

wide

Risk rating

8

Pattern

\b\d{1,2}\.\d{1,2}\s*%|\b\d{1,3}\s*(?:basis\s*points|bps)\b

Corroborative evidence keywords

monetary policy, interest rate, cash rate, RBA, Reserve Bank, central bank, decision, recommendation, board paper, deliberation, pre-announcement, embargoed, basis points, tighten, ease, hold, rate change, PROTECTED, pre-decision, financial (+14 more)

Proximity: 300 characters

Should match

• PROTECTED — EMBARGOED. Treasury Analysis: Expected RBA Cash Rate Decision — March 2026 Board Meeting. Assessment: RBA board likely to ease by 25 basis points to 3.85%. Supporting factors: CPI at 2.4%, below target band midpoint. Employment softening. Pre-decision analysis — not for distribution. — Treasury pre-decision analysis of expected RBA rate change
• CONFIDENTIAL — PRE-DECISION. Reserve Bank Board Paper. Recommendation: Reduce the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%. Deliberation: The Board notes that inflation has returned to the target band. Economic growth remains below trend. Hold option considered but rejected. — Central bank board paper with rate recommendation
• PROTECTED — EMBARGOED. Monetary policy pre-decision briefing for the Reserve Bank board. Staff recommendation: tighten by 50 bps, moving the official cash rate target to 4.35 per cent. Deliberation notes restricted pending the board decision. Not for distribution. — Pre-decision monetary policy briefing with bps and per-cent rate indicators

Should not match

• RBA Media Release: At its meeting today, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged. The decision was published immediately after the meeting. — Published RBA decision — public announcement
• Market economists expect the RBA to cut rates at its next meeting. CBA, Westpac, and NAB have all forecast a rate reduction in their public research notes. — Market economist predictions based on public information

Known false positives

• Published RBA decisions and media releases Mitigation: Exclude documents containing 'media release', 'at its meeting today', 'decided to' indicating published decisions
• Market economist predictions and bank research notes Mitigation: Exclude documents containing 'economists expect', 'forecast', 'prediction', 'market pricing' indicating external analysis