Government Revenue Forecast Model

Detects internal government revenue projections including tax revenue, royalties, mining/gas receipts, and stamp duty forecasts before public release in budget papers or MYFER.

Type

keyword_proximity

Engine

universal

Confidence

high

Confidence justification

High confidence: pre-release revenue projections with Treasury context and fiscal year references are highly specific to restricted fiscal documents. Published MYFER and budget papers are excluded.

Jurisdictions

au

Regulations

Financial Accountability Act 2009 (Qld)

Frameworks

QGISCF

Data categories

financial, government

Scope

wide

Risk rating

8

Pattern

FY\d{2}(?:-\d{2})?|\d{4}-\d{2}

Corroborative evidence keywords

revenue, forecast, projection, estimate, Treasury, MYFER, mid-year, fiscal, royalty, stamp duty, payroll tax, GST distribution, growth rate, PROTECTED, draft, pre-release, financial, monetary, accounting, treasury (+24 more)

Proximity: 300 characters

Should match

• PROTECTED — Queensland Treasury Revenue Forecast Update. Draft — not for publication. Total own-source revenue projection FY26-27: $32.4B (growth rate 2.8%). Royalties revised down $1.2B due to coal price decline. Stamp duty forecast: $4.1B. GST distribution estimate: $16.8B. — Pre-release Treasury revenue forecast with specific projections
• Draft MYFER Revenue Analysis — Queensland Treasury. Pre-release. Payroll tax collections projected at $5.2B, up 4.1% on FY25-26. Mining royalties downgrade risk: $800M if commodity prices soften. This document is PROTECTED and must not be distributed. — Mid-year fiscal review revenue analysis with projections

Should not match

• Queensland Budget 2025-26 — Budget Paper No. 1: Revenue Measures. Total revenue: $68.7 billion. Published by Queensland Treasury. — Published budget paper with revenue figures
• Annual Report: Department of Natural Resources and Mines. Royalty revenue for the year was $4.8B, in line with the published forecast. — Annual report referencing published revenue figures

Known false positives

• Published budget papers and MYFER documents with revenue data Mitigation: Exclude documents containing 'published', 'budget paper no', 'annual report' without pre-release markers
• Academic or media commentary on government revenue forecasts Mitigation: Exclude documents containing 'commentary', 'analysis by', 'source:', 'according to published'